Why I'm not excited about Brian Kelly's interview with Eagles...
While I was sleeping on the jobsite this week, the Eagles interviewed Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly. Upon learning of this, I suffered a Joe Kuharich flashback. But that's not the real reason I'm unimpressed by the Kelly interview.
It feels to me that this is one of those interviews where a college head coach decides to enhance his value to his current employer. Sure, it doesn't hurt to put your toe in the NFL waters and get to know a few influential folks for future reference, either. But I am dubious that Kelly has any real intention of becoming the Eagles head coach in 2013.
I have no empirical evidence to support my feeling about Kelly. My only real clue is something I heard Kelly's current boss Jack Swarbrick (athletic director at Notre Dame) say on ESPN radio Monday night before the BCS game: "We will do everything in our power to make sure Brian Kelly remains head coach at Notre Dame."
Brian Kelly would be at least the fourth college coach the Eagles have considered for their opening at the top, after Chip Kelly and Penn State's Bill O'Brien decided to stay where they are and Syracuse's Doug Marrone accepted an offer from the Buffalo Bills before the Eagles could interview him.
In Brian Kelly, the Eagles would get someone with a strong defensive background but no NFL experience. But if they decide he's their best choice, landing him will be tricky. Like O'Brien and Chip Kelly, Brian Kelly seems destined to stay where he is for at least another season, if not a bunch.
He's repeatedly stated that Notre Dame is his dream job. On the other hand, he hasn't ruled out making another leap after rising through the college ranks from his first head coaching job at Grand Valley State, which he led to a pair of Division II national titles. "For me to say I'll never coach in the NFL, I have no idea," Kelly said last week. "I'm not trying to be evasive. It's the truth of the matter. It's all about timing."
ESPN has reported that Kelly has already met with the Eagles but that he is out of the country now on vacation.
Before coming to Notre Dame, Kelly coached current Eagles center Jason Kelce at Cincinnati, where Kelce originally broke in as a walk-on linebacker before making the switch to center.
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has not responded to an inquiry about whether they will reach out to Alabama's Nick Saban, who's hinted strongly that he has no intention of leaving Alabama but has never ruled it out either.
Luck-Driven Factors in Winning a Game in the NFL...
GK Brizer has often referred to the "bad-bounce" factor in his analysis of what influences the outcome of a single game. I try to search for quantitative metrics to illustrate and support his theorem.
Some good illustrations occasionally come from Football Outsiders.com, but this one comes from Causal Sports.com, a pretty nifty site written by Tyler Williams, which I recommend if you are into sabremetrics, or if you are simply gifted with Brizerian curiosity.
Especially in a one-and-done scenario like the Playoffs, it's important to account for the FUMBLE, which it turns out is nearly impossible to predict or who will recover it when it does happen.
Predicting a single game outcome needs to adjust for possible luck in fumble recoveries. In his article, Tyler Williams tries to come up with a pythagorean formula to factor in this particular bad bounce. But it's really difficult.
Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is NOT a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players . . . Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general public overestimates or underestimates certain teams. Fumbles are huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says absolutely nothing about a team’s chances of winning games in the future. With this in mind, Football Outsiders stats treat all fumbles as equal, penalizing them based on the likelihood of each type of fumble (run, pass, sack, etc.) being recovered by the defense.
The keys are:
- Fumbles are huge turning points in games
- Teams don’t maintain high or low recovery rates over time
To quantify #1, I determined the point value of a recovery. A simple regression of point differential in each game on total fumbles and fumbles recovered shows that, holding the number of total fumbles constant for each team, a home team fumble is worth about 2.8 points of point differential, and an away team fumble is worth about 3.7 points of point differential in the other direction.* Imagine a game where each team fumbles four times, but the home team recovers none while the visitors recover all four. Adjusting both teams to the average recovery rate of 2.2 out of four fumbles (about 56%, which includes fumbles nullified by penalties and replay reviews) changes the point differential by over ten points.
I almost get that! Or as Ollie once said to Stanley after Stan made a comically sound and logical proposal to start their own fishing business---"Wait a minute [pause for quizzical stare at Stanley]..."Run that by me again."
Good morning all ..... New Blurb just in case any of you are still here.... Your fav Dutchie gets the first!!
JB, I learned Zep's "The Rain Song" You have tune to a weird Jimmy Page setting but it's a very pretty song. Fun to play.
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@PPW Tell Jimmy Page that TGWBWLNWJB99 said that tuning of a guitar is stupid and he sucks and hasnt written any good songs at all.... except for all but one or two... the rest were amazing.
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@PPW And quit trying to make me post a proper sentence that makes sense!!!!!!!!!11111111!!1
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Rams hire Rob Ryan.... That seems an odd fit since Fisher likes to run a 4-3 and Ryan prefers the 3-4???
@tboned208 Friend of mine had a 69 Mach 1.........nice car to cruise in, but man was that a piece of crap.
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@dutchrubb @tboned208 My brother had a Mach 1 Fastback with white seats.... until he puked jungle juice all over inside.... hahaha....
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@tboned208 Yeah...seen lots of Fords Chevy powered...........only have ever seen one other guy stupid enuf to go the other way.......had a Corvette stuffed full of 460 Ford.....what a knob.
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@dutchrubb @Spiffo at a car show in PA way back in the day. Dude had a kick ass 70 Cougar but it had a bow tie painted on the tail. I asked why and he lifted the hood and showed me a Chevy 427 Awesome
@dutchrubb @tboned208 In my Mustang, the front stablizer bar came loose and cut my brake line while coming down the NE Extension.... I made it home using the hand brake and lots of down shifting....
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@Spiffo @tboned208 I remember a VW Thing...........cereal box on wheels. Would you believe that those "Things" have a cult collectable following now?
Hahahahaha!!! Times really have changed.
@Spiffo @tboned208 Then their was this guy who fancied himself the local hot shoe with a 67 Cougar.............nobody liked the guy, and car was really a pooch, 390 V-8, wore out real bad. It did everybody a favor leaving town one night as the tie rod end came apart and he hit the side of the bridge. Adios one Cougar.
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@dutchrubb @tboned208 Hahah... My cousin had an old VW Thing. The floorboards on the passenger side were rusted out and every time he went over a puddle you would get splashed....
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@Spiffo @tboned208 Another friend of mine had a 68 Mustang. That car was rusted so bad that when he jammed on the breaks real hard you could see the whole front clip tilt forward about two inches. I absolutely would not ride in it.
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Dutchboy...I had one Ford my whole life...73 Gran Torino.....(sp?)....I learnt how to work on cars owning that farking car at 16 yrs old.....the hood was up more than it was down....I finally killed it and bought a 67 Firebird
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@tboned208 My dad always said he had tew Fords in his life.............both at the same time............the first and the last.
59 Galaxie...........first ride out the rearend started to make noise and the heater core leaked all over Mom's shoe.
It was traded on a 60 Pontiac that same night, did not even make it home.
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@tboned208 After that one was a 72 Nova, 70 Chevelle, 68 Monte Carlo, and a 69 Firebird....
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A GIANT SALAD topped wiff kidney beans, carrots, hard boiled eggs, cheddar, mushrooms, bacon bits, sunflower seeds, and croutons then smothered in home-made blue cheese dressing
10 slices of pizza
a bowl of chili smothered in cheese and onions
a bowl of pasta
a baked potato covered in cheese, butter, bacon bits, and sour cream
finishing with a bowl of tapioca pudding!!!!
MAN!!! Now I know what Borz was talking about all those times he ate like a pig....
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@Harry Pianos @Spiffo speaking of beans...How's your doin these days Hairy...you completely rehabbed ?
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@tboned208 @Spiffo These beans are fully operational.....but not functional....which is good.....
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So that's the only abbreviations you sad sacks can come up with for Ford, just those tew?
Add these to your lists:
Found On Russian Dump
Fukin Over Rated Disaster
Fukin Old Rebuilt Dodge, Datsun, Daewoo.......take yer pick.
My Personal favorite:
Found On Retard's Driveways......(this one gets you in trouble these days, dang political correctness.)
And Spiff: It's not supposed to be First On Race Day......it's really First Out Race Day.
And for you Mustang guys.........that stands for: My Ugly Steed Takes All New Gears
You can go annoy all yer Ford friends now..............YWIA
