Eagles defense studies Cowboys' most successful formations...
You may have seen a write-up a year or so ago on this subject by Jonathan Bales, the founder of the Dallas Cowboys Times who is obsessed with film study of Cowboys football. I thought I'd try to put a new wrinkle on it and try to guess how the Eagles are identifying the most likely offensive formations they will face on Saturday, based on the degree of success Dallas has had with a particular formation in a given game situation.
Not having the great Doug Free available at full strength will influence a lot of the Cowboys' formation choices.
Bales has analyzed a few of the Cowboys’ tendencies when running plays from certain formations and with specific personnel packages. For example, he noticed the Cowboys average nearly three yards less per play in “Empty Set” formations (as compared to all other formations), are much more successful with tight end Jason Witten in a route, and run a strong side dive play out of “Double Tight Right Strong Right” 71.6 percent of the time, including 85.7 percent when motioning into it.
Let's just look at the Cowboys' top 8 most-successful formations. Their playbook has a total of 37 formations which Bales analyzed. For sake of time and space, let's look at the eight most productive:
- 3 Wide I
12 passes (60 percent)/8 runs (40 percent)
5.25 yards/attempt
3.63 yards/rush
3 sacks (25 percent), five passes 10+ yards (41.7 percent), 1 pass 20+ (8.3 percent)
- Ace
24 passes (82.8 percent)/5 runs (17.2 percent)
11.46 yards/attempt
2.00 yards/rush
12 passes 10+ (50 percent), five passes 20+ (20.8 percent), two negative runs (40 percent)
- Double Tight I
10 passes (24.4 percent)/31 runs (75.6 percent)
6.30 yards/attempt
6.71 yards/rush
One sack (10 percent), two passes 10+ (20 percent), one pass 20+ (10 percent), four negative runs (12.9 percent), eight runs 10+ (25.81 percent), one run 20+ (56 yards)–3.2 percent
- Double Tight Left/Right Ace
14 passes (38.9 percent)/22 runs (61.1 percent)
6.0 yards/attempt
3.27 yards/rush
One sack (7.1 percent), three passes 10+ (21.4 percent), two passes 20+ (14.3 percent), three runs 10+ (13.6 percent), five negative runs (22.7 percent)
- Double Tight Left/Right I
3 passes (4.7 percent)/61 runs (95.3 percent)
10.33 yards/attempt
4.93 yards/rush
One pass 10+ (33.3 percent), one pass 20+ (33.3 percent), six runs 10+ (10.4 percent), two runs 20+ (46, 32 yards)–3.5 percent
52 passes (91.2 percent)/5 runs (8.8 percent)
4.04 yards/attempt
2.20 yards/rush
Four sacks (7.7 percent), 12 passes 10+ (23.1 percent), two passes 20+ (3.9 percent), one negative run (20 percent)
- Double Tight Left/Right Ace
14 passes (38.9 percent)/22 runs (61.1 percent)
6.0 yards/attempt
3.27 yards/rush
One sack (7.1 percent), three passes 10+ (21.4 percent), two passes 20+ (14.3 percent), three runs 10+ (13.6 percent), five negative runs (22.7 percent)
- Twins Left/Right
24 passes (41.4 percent)/34 runs (58.6 percent)
7.79 yards/attempt
4.77 yards/rush
Three sacks (12.5 percent), five passes 10+ (20.8 percent), three passes 20+ (59, 69 yards)–12.5 percent, five runs 10+ (14.7 percent), one run 20+ (2.9 percent), three negative runs (8.8 percent)
Now you have a pretty good idea what Eagles players are looking at tonight as they strive to recognize the formations Dallas will throw at them on Saturday--- and the probabilities of success and direction each play run from those formations will produce.Just a few observations to come after a short break...
Okay, break over.. so my biggest concern for the Eagles defense is minimizing TE Jason Witten's effect in many of the money formations shown above...
Jason Witten is an all-around player. He's a very good pass receiver, but it's not just short area. He's down the field also - he can make a play 20 yards down the field as well as five and be a ball control tight end.
Witten averaged 10.3 yards per reception last season, and only two tight ends, San Francisco's Vernon Davis and San Diego's Antonio Gates, had more catches go for 20 or more yards
While Witten is a dangerous threat on every snap, he's been particularly good on third down.
"He's Tony Romo's outlet, especially on third downs," Dallas LB SteveTulloch said. "When he's getting pressure, he definitely looks to Witten."
Last season, Witten had 18 first-down receptions on third down. That number was tied for ninth in the NFL and first among tight ends.
"I think having a reliable tight end is an important aspect for a quarterback," Romo said about his relationship with Witten. "He's got to make a bunch of different reads in his route a lot of the time, and you have to trust him as if it was you running the routes."
To counter the Witten effect in many of the formations shown above, Castillo will load up the box on those sets. On some pass plays, Castillo will move a DE closer into the formation, then blitz a safety off that side.
Another wrinkle Castillo will show: JB calls it "The Amoeba"... Mike Patterson and Cullen Jenkins will be the only two "down" linemen, and DE's Jason Babin and Trent Cole will become like ILB's that move around and try to confuse the Cowboys' blocking assignments... and then by rushing inside or looping outside or stunting off each other, they will try to disrupt Romo's rhythm and take Witten out of the equation.
As for that Twins Left/Right formation where the Cowboys stack their WR's to one side, Castillo will break an old Eagles pattern and bring both CB's to that side. He used to leave a CB backside and have his free safety come down on that extra WR... oh the times they are a changin'...
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And a Hearty SC heeeeehawwww (dats hohoho Southern Fried) to youse guys. Fellas..we gots this..piece of cake....Jerry better load up on the Pepto and have a escape pod ready at the Jerry Fortress. A feared as he is I'm betting he beams outta there in the 3rd quarter.....Birds 35...Romo's Harem 3.... and Rex's Bro cuts his hair, puts on a girdle and does his best Arnold impression to escape dem rabid Cowpaddie fans.....
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Ok,..i gots shoppin' to do early,..should be done by noon. I'll get my Starbucks holiday brew ready now,..to be ready ,..when i'm ready,..early...as per usual. Nite ladies,...somebody pull Hairy's palm out of the gutter,...and into da slammer...it suits him......GK.
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Welp,..I dug deep and procured dis SiTD. Heck,..it was actually ez,...it was a Giants victory that led to our downfall 29-18. Mail it in,..knuckleheads.
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@Harry Pianos Tell me dat tamale at 6,...when I rustles up meself, den ganders at meself inda mirror!..Wow,...you,..you,... you look (and feel) mavvvelous,..darling!
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I'm thinking the Jets beat the Gunts,,,,,,and the Iggs win, 31-21....Celek again wiff a big day
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Nuttin wrong wit bein F'n drunk pal! In fact you are probably 10 times cooler in real life when you are drunk. No big whoop!!! @Harry Pianos
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Wall-to-wall football tomorree... of course Giants-Jets game a must-see at 1:15 pm...wonder if Jets even care we need 'em to win? Gotta be some Philly/Ryan connections and sympathies on the Jets, you'd think?
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Some interesting twitter stuff on Phils page at Philly.com. David Wright coming to Phils. Polonco is hold up Phils looking to trade him maybe to Detroit. This is according to a guy by name of youngcahill.
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Welp,.....Cotton robe on,..slippers off,...porter on the glass coffee table,.. half filled wi/bounty, ....I'm nestled on a love seat,.. legs elevated and bisecting the comfy arm,....listening to Enya,.. amplified by tubes of conrad-johnson thru speakers of thiel,.......in an amarantidian meditation.....eyes wide shut. Carry on.......GK.
C,C,..CCC!!!!
@Harry Pianos Another man might have been angry,..another man might have been hurt,...but another man would have left youse a long time ago,..I slipped da twenty in my shirt.....
@Harry Pianos@Brozer8 you do!!!,..yur lucky 3D croaked,..or we'd we given youse an Irish Wake me friend!
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There's a great article on espn.com about the day the eagles booed Santa. They interview the Guy and apperantely Vince papoli was in the stands that day and they interview him to. Good article.
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Round ball team has their first game Monday!...Gonna win the Atlantic this year, baby!...Then Dwight will wanna join us...Or we trade up and get Perry Jones or Andre Drummond next year and go all the way to the ship!...
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Yes,..Aso has allowed some TDs this year,...Troof be told,...for the most part,..phenomenal plays by the WRs,..and even QBs. This happens in the NFL wiff highly advanced talent,..or just plain dumb luck.
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There's no point in my being here. I'm heading out. It's getting to the point when I should really start my Christmas shopping.
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Aso has been in the league so long the rules have literally changed around him...part of his game has been taken away from him by the rule changes...he is being called for PI that was a no-call five years ago...plus he's been playing on a bad wheel most of the year. And he was forced to play an unfamiliar new role in Mano's now-abandoned plans... I'm guessing Aso will have a much better year in 2012.
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@Tom Jackson fingers crossed* and that drc figures it out. And the Perez nets us a 2nd round pick. He's gotta atleast be worth a 2. Three 2nd round draft picks sounds pretty good to me.
Sorry, but DRC is cheap to keep for the immediate future and I don't think he'll net a 2nd now...@Spiffo @fieldsr69 @Tom
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@Spiffo Asante is the better corner right now, but DRC is also a pro-bowl corner on the outside and he'll only improve.
If I had to choose, give me the 26 year old who is bigger, faster, a better tackler and is on his way up over the 32 year old who may have another two good years, but who has reached his peak. In my book, DRC was a top ten corner when he came to us. He had to get used to a new position here so he hasn't played to his potential. Now he's had a year in the system, and the coaches know him better. He'll also be moved back to his natural position if Asante is gone.
I'd like to keep them both, but if that's not possible, we keep DRC.
