Eagles Eye - A Philadelphia Eagles blog
Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting is still in Mobile, Alabama, filing reports from Senior Bowl week and coming up with some nice original stuff. He's living on Waffle House pancakes, 5-Hour Energy Drink and Starbucks coffee... but he's making it.
Meanwhile the local debate over what to do with the Eagles' backup QB situation carries on... Release Vince Young? Bring in a lower-cost veteran (Trent Edwards), even if he's been out of the game for a year? Promote Mike Kafka? Bring back Donovan McNabb at half his old contract value if Donnie's ego can deal with the situation? Or draft and sign one of the top QB hopefuls from the current college senior class of 2012?
Bottom line: if you're going with Mike Vick at QB#1, you're going to have to project at least three and possibly 4 or more starts for your backup QB.
Even Kyle Boller and old veteran Jeff Garcia remain in play for the Eagles depending upon how they decide to make their backup plan for 2012.
I tend to lean toward releasing Vince Young and giving Kafka his shot at #2... but still having a promising draftee in the wings.
And that's why Eric Galko's new statistical invention to measure young QB prospects' Real-Time IQ became intriguing to me.
Here's a condensed version of the report on QB's he filed on Thursday after the final Wednesday practices:
Russell Wilson, QB, 5-11, 201, who transferred from North Carolina State to Wisconsin, and also has a professional baseball career in the wings, could be at age 24 ready to take on an NFL backup assignment... He scored very high in Eric Galko's evaluation experiment at Senior Bowl practice sessions this past week...
It was a very busy day for Galko on Wednesday, with North and South practices to cover, press conference quotes to get, and most importantly, additional tape to watch in the film room with NFL scouts.
On that film room note, Galko got a chance to see every meaningful drill rep of the past two days in there, so there may not be a single person who's seen more Senior Bowl practices in person or on tape than Galko... other than equally obsessed NFL team scouts, of course.
Eric Galko's New Quarterback Stat Analysis
Here's where Galko came up with a new wrinkle on quantifying the efficacy of a QB practice:
-"While the Senior Bowl is maybe the best chance to throw around stats, I did a little bit of statistical anaylsis on the quarterbacks. Here was the experiment: I would see, from Day 2 and Day 3, in team and 7-on-7 drills, how many reads each quarterback made off the snap and how they scored in correct read/incorrect read ratio, and good read vs. bad throw ratio. Here are the results:"
Russell Wilson: 1.9 reads, 70% throwing the correct read, 15% throwing to the wrong read (didn't make incorrect read all of Day 2);
Brandon Weeden: 1.6 reads, 65% throwing the correct read (only once made correct read with poor throw);
Kirk Cousins: 1.5 reads, 40% throwing the correct read (5 throws that were either poor throws or route communication errors);
Ryan Lindley: 1.5 reads, 30% throwing the correct read (40% of the time was throwing the wrong read, mostly due to pressure in pocket and panicking);
Kellen Moore: 1.2 reads, 20% throwing the correct read (that includes one "sack", which is a sack that he caused by indecisiveness, not by pressure);
Nick Foles: 1.2 reads, 40% throwing the correct read, but "sacked" FOUR times due to indecisiveness.
"So, what can we make out of this? Well, as I watched the tape, Russell Wilson had a fantastic week, placing the ball well, scanning the field, using his eyes to move safties/cornerbacks, and overall showed some great field awareness.
Brandon Weeden had a very good week, and part of his lack of greater numbers was from having 1-2 less throws (for whatever reason) than the other quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins seems, on film, after one read, he's throwing to that second guy or bust, which isn't good for an NFL offense.
Ryan Lindley actually can make the reads, but was far too flustered under pressure and overall too inaccurate to say he had a good week.
Nick Foles is far too indecisive and needs that rhythm, timing offense he had in college, while Kellen Moore anticipated pre-snap all week and seemed to need to realize that he couldn't drive the ball down the field on a second read in the NFL.
Eric Galko's experimental stat measurement of young QB's in drill situations seems meaningful to me in the sense of getting a better feel for which college senior may be most ready to take on an emergency assignment in his rookie season in the NFL.
With the Eagles, that "emergency" aspect has got to be a practical consideration. As we've seen over the past two NFL seasons, and even looking back at the final McNabb years, the backup QB has got to be ready to go, and proficient in his reads... with the actual physicality of throwing the ball with conviction secondary to knowing where to throw it.
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I'd like to think the Eagles have a great year ahead filled with victories earned by the lessons of past defeat... MV stays healthy, there are no major injuries to anyone, and the priority of ball security is held second to none...
And let's face it, all they've got to do is improve their 2011 record by two games--- two stinkin' hard-fought games--- and they're in the playoffs in 2012-13 with a chance to do major damage and advance further.
But the reality will be---it's just not that easy or predictable.
Vick will either evolve to new heights or crumble into mediocrity. The league is pretty much on to his game. At least the Eagles defense is building to a higher level of competency...and that may be the area where the Eagles will make the biggest contribution to a successful 2012.
But the devil is in the details. And here are the details of a new season in the making, as Ed Kracz (no, not Mr. Kraxx) wrote about for phillyburbs.com earlier this week... and prior to further Mach 10 draft speculation, it is good to note his "turning point" issues with the Eagles.
To wit:
The trouble with sleeping, eating and breathing Eagles day after day since summertime is that, even when the season is over, that never really stops. Whoever said that there is no offseason in football, or any professional sport for that matter, knew what they were talking about. Maybe the only difference is that, instead of asking questions out loud to yourself about the team, the season and the coaches, the questions only roll around inside your head and remain there. Though there seems to be a bit less urgency surrounding them, that doesn't mean they go away.
"The key is always, always after you ask yourself a question, whether it stays inside your head or is blurted out to no one in particular, you must never, ever answer it out out loud. That would mean you are talking and answering yourself. But, as a public service, here are a few Eagles questions that keep rattling around in my sleep, during my meals and when I inhale — with out-loud answers for your reading pleasure."
What to do with DeSean Jackson?
This is the one question that swirls around more than most.
He is without a contract. He has outperformed his four-year rookie deal, topping 1,000-yards receiving in two of those years and going above 900 yards in the other two. He became the first player in NFL history to post 3,500 receiving yards and 1,000 punt return yards in his first four seasons in the league. The list of on-field accomplishments goes on and on. Say nothing about how he stretches defenses with his blinding speed... But his off-the-field petulance was in the spotlight this past year.
Answer: Jackson needs to return. And he needs to do it with a multi-year contract. He told me after the Eagles' season finale that he would be receptive to a franchise tag, which would pay him an average of the top wide receiver contracts in the league. But the Eagles shouldn't risk paying for only a single year; otherwise, Jackson could become the off-field distraction he became last season...Franchise and transition tags can begin being applied on Feb. 20 with a deadline to do so on March 5.
The Patriots' Antwaun Molden (left) intercepts a pass intended for the Eagles' DeSean Jackson during the second quarter of New England's 38-20 victory on Nov. 27.
What about Asante Samuel?
The cornerback didn't help his case for sticking around by ripping the front office prior to the trading deadline in October.
Answer: Samuel missed the last two games of the regular season with a hamstring injury, and the Eagles didn't miss a beat. He will be gone, but only provided the Eagles get something close to what they believe his value is... Say something along the lines of a mid-round pick or two.
What will Andy Reid do with Juan Castillo?
This one may be answered before any others. Maybe even any day now.
Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier recently praised Castillo. So if Reid hands Castillo his walking papers, he can carry them right on up to Minnesota.
But replacing Castillo is dicey for Reid, since the players all seemed to respond positively to him, and a change would make the next defensive coordinator the fourth coordinator the team has had since 2008.
Answer: If there is somebody more qualified than Castillo, say, Todd Bowles, then Reid needs to hire him. If there is nobody with a resume much better than Castillo's — and the emphasis is on "much" — then Juan should be brought back.
If Castillo goes, what becomes of the wide nine?
On Jan. 2, the day the players cleaned out their lockers and headed into their offseason, one defensive linemen told me line coach Jim Washburn wanted to return, but wasn't sure if the Eagles were open to having him back.
That may have changed with the hiring of Jeff Fisher in St. Louis. Fisher and Washburn worked together in Tennessee for 12 years.
Washburn, as we all know, brought with him the wide-nine scheme when he was hired. The wide-nine, as we all know, was vulnerable to the run. If Washburn is gone, then what becomes of Jason Babin, who obviously flourished in Washburn's unique system with 30½ sacks the past two years under Washburn's coaching?
Answer: Washburn should return. With 50 sacks this year, the Eagles tied the Vikings for most in the league.
What will the Eagles do in free agency?
This question consumes me for hours on end.
The league can begin negotiating with free agents at 4 p.m. on March 13. In previous years, free agency began at midnight. An earlier start should make things even more interesting for fans.
It seems to make sense that the Eagles will go after a veteran linebacker. Of course, it seemed to make sense last year, too, but the team chose to go with youth and inexperience.
It proved a toxic mix.
Some names to keep an eye on in the free-agent linebacker class are Stephen Tulloch, Curtis Lofton and London Fletcher.
Tulloch was available last year, but the Eagles turned a blind eye. All he did was make 111 tackles with three sacks and two interceptions.
Lofton registered 147 tackles for the Falcons and, at 6 feet, he's two inches taller than Tulloch. Both are physical in the run game and are in their mid 20s.
If the Eagles spend a first-rounder on a linebacker, they may want more of a one- or two-year stopgap in Fletcher, who is 36, but was highly productive with 166 tackles for the Redskins.
Answer: You hope the Eagles learned their lesson from last year and grab one of these players.
What else can they look at in free agency?
This will depend on if DeSean Jackson walks. Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson is 6-foot-5, 230 pounds and productive in the red zone. He could be a potential target given that the Birds' red zone offense was ranked 14th in the league, scoring touchdowns on 34 of their 66 trips there.
Vincent Jackson played under the franchise tag last year and earned about $11.5 million.
A backup quarterback may also be needed. Vince Young wasn't good enough. Donovan McNabb anyone?
Answer: If they don't chase Vincent Jackson, don't look for the Eagles to make a big splash in the market. Any moves will be simply tweaks, but that won't mean they will be less important than some big-ticket player.
What happens in the draft?
Haven't met an expert yet who can figure out exactly what the Eagles will do on draft day. They are as unpredictable as they have been unspectacular with their selections these past couple of years.
Saw one early mock draft already that had them picking Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd in the first round.
Answer: Who knows? But I'd be surprised if it is a linebacker — along the lines of say Boston College's Luke Kuechly — since Reid has never taken one in the first round. The last time the organization did was in 1979, when they selected Jerry Robinson out of UCLA with the 21st pick.
It would also be surprising if the player they pick doesn't play defense. But, again, there is no figuring them out when it comes to the draft. Trading down and picking a quarterback? Hmm...
All that's known at the moment is the draft is April 26-28.
Is 2012 the year of reckoning for Reid?
It would seem that Reid needs to win the Super Bowl in order to get a contract extension. He has just two years left, and it makes sense that he won't head into the final year of that deal in 2013 without one.
Owner Jeffrey Lurie, speaking two days after an 8-8 season, made it seem as if he took a long, hard look at Reid's status. Longer than he usually does. Or maybe not. With Lurie's ties to Hollywood, one can never be sure if he isn't just merely building drama.
Answer: Yes. If Reid doesn't win the Super Bowl, or at least get there, he's O-U-T.
[Ed Kracz: 215-345-3069; email: ekracz@phillyburbs.com; Twitter: @kracze]
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Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting is still working for us from a makeshift office at the Best Western Motel in Mobile, Alabama. Today he brings us the offensive profiles of the guys the Eagles are evaluating at the Senior Bowl practices.
I should first address the question as to why NFL teams send scouting and executive personnel to these all-star games in the first place. Why isn't the videotape accumulated after 3 or 4 years on most of these guys sufficient?
The answer: Tempo. You just can't evaluate tempo (timing and rhythm) of an athlete until you see him (or her) perform in real time relative to the competition surrounding not only the athlete but the event.
Also, the behind-the-scenes yet very scheduled personnel interviews with the prospects are in fact job applications...
Although the Eagles' main focus is defense down in Mobile, here's what they've got to look at on the offensive side:
Eric Galko sees at least 6, possibly 10, 1st-round Draft selections on parade here...
Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State, age 28, 6-4, 220, former New York Yankees minor league pitcher, jumps off the page as the most unlikely yet possibly most qualified college quarterback to move right into a competent backup role in the NFL...
Chris Polk, RB, Washington, 5-11, 222, reminds me of a young Emmit Smith. And that's good.
Quarterbacks
1. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
2. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
3. Nick Foles, Arizona
4. Kellen Moore, Boise State
5. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
6. Russel Wilson, NC State
NOTES: It seems to me the clear-cut top quarterback in this game is Brandon Weeden, but the real question is: what is his value on draft day? Being 28 years old already, he needs to prove that he doesn't need a whole lot of development, as teams need him to be ready to play NOW and hit his prime early. If he can show technique and NFL readiness, he could be worth a late first round look, which is where his talent-value lies. I'm looking forward to see Kirk Cousins display the leadership qualities I've heard so much about, but also to see if he can consistently make the big time NFL throws. Finally, I'm really curious to see if the smaller QBs in Kellen Moore and Russell Wilson can hold up against the bigger, strong-armed Nick Foles and Ryan Lindley.
Running Backs
1. Chris Polk, Washington
2. Doug Martin, Boise State
3. Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati
One to Watch: Terrence Gannaway, Baylor
NOTES: Both Chris Polk and Doug Martin have a chance to be first round picks. Polk was a surprise invite considering he was a "junior" all season, but due to a non-medical redshirt year, he'll get a chance to show why I believe he's the clear second best running back in this class. I'm very curious to see Terrence Gannaway of Baylor this week, as he ended his season on a high note. if he can show some potential feature back ability, at his size and with his bulk, he could be a highly coveted power back.
Wide Receivers
1. Dwight Jones, North Carolina
2. Kendall Wright, Baylor
3. Marvin McNutt, Iowa
4. Brian Quick, Appalachian State
5. Juron Criner, Arizona
One to Watch: DeVier Posey, Ohio State
NOTES: I hope this can stick with me, but Dwight Jones is my single most favorite player in this draft, as I truly feel he could be end up being the best receiver in this class after the week, and should be a Top 20 pick. He'll have a chance to show why I believe he's that, as of now. Kendall Wright of Baylor isn't much further off, though he'll need to show me he can be a consistent outside NFL receiver before I'll give him a Top 20 name. Brian Quick of Appalachian State is an exciting watch, as since following him the past two years especially, the potential is there to develop into a great outside receiver. A big week against consistent NFL talent could go a long way. And finally, DeVier Posey missed almost his entire senior season after two Ohio State suspensions, but he's flashed as a polished deep receiver who can get consistent separation. His stock could be made or broken this week.
Tight End
1. Michael Egnew, Missouri
One to Watch: DeAngelo Peterson, LSU
NOTES: Along with Michael Egnew, who is more of a situational, slot receiver/fringe inside blocker at the next level, Ladarius Green could be the number one senior on NFL team boards as well as a bit more powerful option. Both will be interesting to follow, as both need big weeks to be safe second round picks. DeAngelo Peterson really intrigues as a joker TE at the next level, interested to see if he can be that match-up nightmare consistently or still raw in his development.
Offensive Linemen
1. (OT) Mike Adams, Ohio State
Tackle to Watch: Matt McCants, UAB
1. (OG) Cordy Glenn, Georgia
Guard to Watch: Amini Silatoulu, Midwestern State
1. (OC) Michael Brewster, Ohio State
Center to Watch: Ben Jones, Georgia
NOTES: Mike Adams of Ohio State is currently the top rated offensive tackle prospect and reportedly is high on NFL teams boards. However, I really wonder if he's a left tackle or bust, and he doesn't always show great pass blocking technique. Matt McCants of UAB really intrigues, and he may have a higher ceiling as a left tackle than Adams, but is far more raw. Both could move higher on NFL teams' boards with a big week. Cordy Glenn is only a team-by-team guard prospect, as many won't consider him at all based on their system and his struggles on the outside this year. High on NFL team's boards even in the pre-season, Amini Silatoulu has some lofty expectations to live up to, and against a talented defensive tackle and end group at the Senior Bowl, he'll surely be tested. I am hoping center Mike Brewster gets some work at guard or tackle before the week's over with, but he's still one of the Top 6-7 interior offensive linemen in this draft. Ben Jones of Georgia looks great on film sometimes and has led a young Georgia offensive line this year, but I'm not sold on him as a Top 3 center prospect after Peter Konz and David Molk.
Thanks again, Eric Galko, who's on location in Mobile... We'll look to you for more updates on Senior Bowl developments this week...and please send us the bill for room service expenses...oh wait, the Best Western doesn't have room service...Okay, we'll foot the bill for complimentary USA Today at your door and continental breakfast in the lobby... JB and Broz highly recommend the oatmeal, best served with a toast spoon... and welcome back to our old friend from Florida, Palm Feathers!!!
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That old Dylan line could describe Juan Castillo right now...
He's down in Mobile, Alabama, representing the role of defensive coordinator for the Eagles at the Senior Bowl... but still awaiting the imprimatur of Andy Reid and the Eagles front office.
I can relate... one of my earlier jobs was as a marketing director for a start-up Apple software distributor in the '80's... They sent me to an "AppleFest" trade show in Boston to represent the company...Steve Jobs was there, too... That was in April...by June, I had been informed the company was being taken over by a new ownership coalition...and my services were no longer required.
Hopefully Juan Castillo is not being set up for a similar fate. I mean, for Juan's sake...
Here's the Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Ford's take on the story:
"Practice for the Senior Bowl began Monday, and NFL coaches and scouts gathered once again in godforsaken Mobile, Ala., to pretend they can divine something about the current crop of potential draft picks that four years of videotape couldn't already tell them."
"Some of these players won't take part in the February scouting combine, and this might be the only chance to see them work out live and, well, everyone else is doing it. So, off they go with their clipboards and their stopwatches and their stubborn belief that the only way to beat the next guy is to put in one more hour than he does."
"Juan Castillo, who leads the league in hours (put in on the job), is there as part of the Eagles contingent of clipboards. The defensive coordinator everyone assumed would become the former defensive coordinator soon after the end of the season still has the title, and it looks as if people better start getting used to that."
"The assumption during most of the past month was that Reid had a plan and was waiting for just the right moment to put it into motion. Let's see. He was going to place Juan Castillo with Minnesota as Leslie Frazier's defensive coordinator and then hire former assistant Steve Spagnuolo, relieved of head coaching duties by the Rams, as his own coordinator. Or he was going to move Castillo to the defensive backs assistant job that came open when Johnnie Lynn was fired and hire some other coordinator. Or he was going to bring in a veteran to be assistant head coach/defense and leave Castillo as coordinator but give him some help. Or ... or ... something."
Bob Ford dramatizes the situation quite nicely.
As Ford puts it, it might still be that Reid has a plan, or it might be that all the speculation was just wind blowing through the echo chamber created by a lack of action when action seemed to be demanded. Nature abhors a vacuum, but it's got nothing on the national football media.
Whatever the blueprint for the future, there is no indication that removing Castillo from his post is part of it. Four teams hired new defensive coordinators in January, and it's not like the next Buddy Ryan is about to be discovered while biding his time as someone's cornerbacks coach. Up in Minnesota, Frazier removed Fred Pagac as coordinator and replaced him with defensive backs coach Alan Williams, who has never been a coordinator. At least he was coaching on the proper side of the ball, however. As for Pagac, he agreed to stay on as a second linebackers coach, so if you think Reid runs an odd staff, take a look at that one.
Spagnuolo, of course, went to New Orleans as coordinator, replacing Gregg Williams, who made a lateral move to St. Louis to take that same job with new coach Jeff Fisher. If the Eagles ever had any actual interest in Spagnuolo or he in them, it wasn't apparent.
Elsewhere, there is plenty of movement around the league while the Eagles remain fixed in place. There is a head-coaching search in Oakland (which includes Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg as a supposed front-runner) and others in Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. There are also a slew of offensive coordinator openings and, if the last year had gone somewhat differently, Castillo might make sense as a candidate for one of those. Perhaps "that is Reid's master plan. If so, it's well hidden. Eventually, Andy Reid will come out and say what is becoming obvious: He thinks Castillo was a good choice as defensive coordinator and still does. Business may have suffered a downturn in 2011, but it will still be business as usual in 2012.
"Or perhaps he does have a surprise in store. And so we wait, as February crowds January and the clipboards and stopwatches begin to sketch the rough landscape of another season. The NFL rolls on as always, and, as far as we can tell, so do the Eagles."--- Bob Ford
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THE LEE EVANS “CATCH” controversy....
One of the many hot topics in the wake of Sunday’s conference championship games is Lee Evans non-catch at the end of regulation in the Pats-Ravens game. Over on Slate, Josh Levin has a good analysis of the catch. Levin seems to think that a strict application of the NFL rule on touchdown catches suggests that Evans did make the catch. Here’s the language he looks at:
Item 3: End Zone Catches. If a player controls the ball while in the end zone, both feet, or any part of his body other than his hands, must be completely on the ground before losing control, or the pass is incomplete.
Note: In the field of play, if a catch of a forward pass has been completed, after which contact by a defender causes the ball to become loose before the runner is down by contact, it is a fumble, and the ball remains alive. In the end zone, the same action is a touchdown, since the receiver completed the catch beyond the goal line prior to the loss of possession, and the ball is dead when the catch is completed.
Okay, so the thing you have to determine is---did Evans complete the catch? I say he did by the strictest interpretation of the end-zone rule. This assumes he had both feet down with possession of the ball prior to the late strip by Sterling Moore. Since Evans backpedaled into the endzone, I say he should get credit for two (and possibly three) feet down--- nobody seems to be looking at his first backpedal step as he caught the ball going away from the defender.
Levin’s article does get at another interesting issue; the limitations of instant replay and the metaphysics of football. Defining a catch is hard stuff: when slowed down, some valid catches look questionable and some questionable catches look valid. This is true of a lot of plays. On close examination, what was once clear looks murky; this is a problem for the NFL and one that’s exacerbated by replay.
The only reason I'm obsessing about this is some day (and that day may never come) a non-call like this is going to affect the outcome of an Eagles game...and it better not cost us a championship.
Feeling the football vacuum in Philadelphia right about now? You're not alone... Although the NFC and AFC championship games on TV over the past weekend were entertaining to say the least, they left me with a feeling of emptiness--- and a realization that six long months must pass before we hear the popping of any Eagles pads.
The current silence from the Eagles front office doesn't help much, either.
Still, there's the Senior Bowl this week, then the Pro Bowl, followed by the Super Bowl, and not long after that will be the scouting combine and the Draft.
Our in-house scouting correspondent Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting stayed down south this week to cover the Senior Bowl in person at Mobile, Alabama.
I was most interested in previewing the defensive prospects who will be participating. Of course Juan Castillo, Howie Roseman and a bunch of Eagles scouts will be down there looking at both sides of the ball with equal interest. But I have a feeling there will be a bias toward drafting defensive standouts who may be available in the early rounds when the time comes.
Here's a brief summary of some of Eric Galko's notes on the defensive prospects who are booked for the Senior Bowl:
Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina, 6-2, 280, seems to have what the Eagles are looking for in size and speed combo at defensive end.
Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida transferred to North Alabama, 5-10, 180, is an all SEC-performer who got kicked out of U. of Florida despite wanting to play another year there. The Eagles know Jenkins can play corner... they're probably more interested in how Jenkins does in the personal interview sessions in Mobile.
Personally, I find Melvin Ingram and Janoris Jenkins to be two defensive guys the Eagles will look at closely since both will still be on the board by the time the Eagles draft selection numbers come around. They're among the best players available at the Senior Bowl. Both would be considered defensive projects for at least their first year in the NFL if drafted, however.
Here's how Eric Galko rates the top defensive prospects:
"It's the defense that features some of the top tier talent of the Senior Class, especially at defensive end and linebacker.
The senior class could have anywhere from 8-12 first round picks on this Senior Bowl defense."
Defensive End
1. Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
2. Andre Branch, Clemson
3. Quinton Coples, North Carolina
One to Watch: Vinny Curry, Marshall
NOTES: Melvin Ingram is the cream of the crop of this senior defensive end class, the best player at the position regardless of year. He's the only one with a top 20 grade at the position that's in the Senior Bowl game, and he'll have a chance to (hopefully) show off his outstanding versatility as a prospect all week. Andre Branch is more of a 3-4 OLB type in the NFL, and if he can show some awareness and fluidity in space, he could fly up boards and be a lock for the first round. Quinton Coples had a down year along with all of the Tar Heels on defense, lacking focus and what looks like mental preparation. He needs a big week to be back in line with NFL teams' expectations. Vinny Curry really didn't display the type of fluidity and flexibility I had hoped for this year, and for a bit of an undersized, high motor rusher, his ability to be a 3-4 OLB and not a 4-3 DE could be the difference between mid-first and late second round.
Defensive Tackle
1. Devon Still, Penn State
2. Mike Martin, Michigan
3. Brandon Thompson, Clemson
One to Watch: Tydreke Powell, North Carolina
NOTES: Devon Still is the cream of the defensive tackle crop this year, regardless of class, but he still gets a bit high in his posture and part of his projection is his potential to improve. A lot of that will depend on how he's progressed since the end of the season. Mike Martin is a high motor, consistent leverage winner, and I have a feeling I may be a bit too high on him because of his lack of completeness and size in his game. If he can get pressure consistently as well as impactful in the run game, he could still warrant that Top 40-50 pick I think he is now. Brandon Thompson had a bit of a down year and was completely neutralized by average interior linemen at times. He has the first round talent, though, and a big week could change some opinions, including mine. Along with the aforementioned Coples, Tydreke Powell had just an atrocious year based on the lofty expectations that I and many had. He went from possible first rounder to likely undrafted. I've heard of some attitude and lack of coachability concerns, and if they're true, I wouldn't touch him with a draft selection.
Linebackers
1. (OLB) Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Outside Linebacker to Watch: Lavonte David, Nebraska
1. (ILB) Emmanuel Acho, Texas
Inside Linebacker to Watch: Bobby Wagner, Utah State
NOTES: Courtney Upshaw and Zach Brown of North Carolina are the two clear cut outside linebackers in this class to me, with Upshaw being a more downhill pass rusher who can make plays in space, while Brown is the better overall athlete who can blitz, cover, and track running backs in space. Both still need to show that they have the completeness in their games to be Top 20 picks. Lavonte David was nothing but productive and closes on the ball as well as any linebacker in college football this past year, but he'll need to show that his size isn't a concern as he goes against a consistent stream of bigger, more athletic offensive guards and tight ends. Emmanuel Acho of Texas will hope to follow in his brother's footsteps from a year ago and use the Senior Bowl to boost his draft stock substantially. As of now, it's unsure what system he fits best in, but he has the size to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. I've heard a lot about Bobby Wagner and James Michael Johnson of Nevada this year from the WAC, and both really intrigue. I see what is to like about Michael-Johnson, he has the NFL build and is balance, fluid in space. But with Wagner, I just don't see the completeness, the aggression through second level blockers, and the consistent tackling ability to be considered a top three rounder like I've heard. Maybe he can prove me wrong, but it'll really take some convincing this week.
Cornerbacks
1. Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
2. Casey Hayward, Vanderbilt
3. Brandon Boykin, Georgia
One to Watch: Asa Jackson, Cal Poly
NOTES: It may be a surprise to some and I doubt he'll be selected as highly as he's ranked right now, but Janoris Jenkins showed some fantastic coverage abilities at Florida as a junior, being maybe the one of the two or three shutdown cornerbacks in college then. He was forced to transfer to North Alabama after another positive drug test. If he can both match his junior year play (rarely tested at North Alabama) and interview well, he could move right back up to the high second round area. Casey Hayward was able to consistently make plays on the ball in the SEC and uses his long speed and length to be in great position. Brandon Boykin really excites me as a prospect and ended his senior season with one of the best bowl performances of the year. He's a great athlete, should have good length for his relatively smaller stature . Asa Jackson may be a surprise invite to some, but I for one and very excited to see him up close. A good athlete, mirrors well deep, and uses his hands down the field well, he and Ryan Steed of Furman will be battling for the top small school cornerback this year after Janoris Jenkins, a battle I currently have the lesser known Jackson in the lead for.
Safeties
1. Mark Barron, Alabama
One to Watch: George Iioka, Boise State
NOTES: Mark Barron is the clear leader, I would guess, on most team's board at the safety position, and is the only one that likely warrants a first round selection. I'll be looking to see how he does in man coverage on tight ends, because he makes outstanding reads in 10-20 yard zones and closes well on the ball. George Iioka has the raw talent and length to be a big "draft riser" if he can flash this week. If he can show a completeness to his game, he could emerge as the #2 safety in this class. He'll be battling fellow free safety Markell Martin of Oklahoma State for that task in my mind.
Thanks for the scouting notes, Eric Galko...and we'll check back with Eric as he remains live on the scene at the Senior Bowl practices all this coming week.
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It seems most of us already know: the biggest factor in losing a football game is usually when your turnover-to-takeaway ratio is a big fat round number. Say, like 3-to-1.
Of course, this is as simplistic as saying the team with the most points at the end of the game wins. No big revelation here...
Still, our guest columnist Andrew Kulp of The 700 Level insists it is the key reason why the 49ers and the Giants are still playing today...and the Eagles are not.
Here's Andrew Kulp's take:
"In an NFL season, 16 teams play 16 games each, producing 256 winners and 256 losers. Fans and even some analysts believe brilliant coaches and elite talents separate the two columns. In theory, they would be wrong."ESPN reporter and former Philadelphia Inquirer scribe Ashley Fox published a telling piece on Friday about the only statistic that ultimately matters on the gridiron: turnover margin. "Since 2000, teams that have been plus-1 [or better] in turnover margin have won 92 of 128 postseason games (a winning percentage of .719). Teams that have lost the turnover battle have won just 14.8 percent of the time."
Fox specifically details turnover margin during the playoffs, but the same holds true during the regular season as well. In 2011, teams that were plus-1 or better won 157 of 200 such games -- a winning percentage of .785.
"No surprise, the Eagles were 3-0 when they won the turnover battle, and 3-6 when they lost. "
Here's where Kulp and Fox lose me a little bit:
"While many would argue defense was this team's biggest problem, we've maintained all along it was turnovers first and foremost. The Eagles had a 6-3 record and allowed 16.6 points per game when they gave the ball away two times or less, but were 2-5 and allowed 25.6 when coughing it up on three or more occasions. Still, plenty are not convinced the defense couldn't have done more.
"To put those numbers in perspective, all 32 teams combined to win 17 out of 103 games when they committed three turnovers or more -- a winning percentage of .159. In eight of the 17, or nearly half of them, the losing team was also on the hook for three-plus.
"Amazingly, the Eagles won two of the 17.
"As for the defense's part in this, the league average was 29.4 points allowed. By comparison, it was 20.4 PPG when there were two giveaways or fewer. Interesting that the difference for both the Eagles and the entire NFL was exactly the same -- nine points."
However, the Eagles were actually superior to the rest of the league in overcoming turnovers. Whether they committed five turnovers or zero, Philly's defense almost always allowed fewer points per game, and the club's winning percentage was the same or better. See for yourself:
| TO | NFL | EAGLES |
| 5+ | 0-13 (.000), 34.4 PPG |
0-1 (.000), 31.0 PPG |
| 4 | 5-24 (.172), 32.2 PPG |
1-1 (.500), 25.0 PPG |
| 3 | 12-49 (.197), 27.0 PPG |
1-3 (.250), 24.5 PPG |
| 2 | 59-74 (.444), 22.6 PPG |
3-2 (.600), 16.8 PPG |
| 1 | 101-70 (.591), 20.1 PPG |
2-1 (.667), 20.3 PPG |
| 0 | 79-26 (.752), 18.0 PPG |
1-0 (1.000), 7.0 PPG |
| 3+ | 17-86 (.159), 29.4 PPG |
2-5 (.286), 25.6 PPG |
| 2- | 239-170 (.584), 20.4 PPG |
6-3 (.667), 16.6 PPG |
"There have been some accusations that we are cherry picking stats that support an agenda, but all we're talking about here is points scored, and how it correlates with giveaways. Clearly the defense was fine when they weren't being bludgeoned by turnovers, and in practically every instance, they were above average at keeping points off the board. This isn't sorcery, folks, and there really is no disputing it."
Okay, I get it... turnovers were a problem, but not the ultimate dagger relative to points allowed by the Eagles... and the Birds' defense outperformed the rest of the league in general when it came to points allowed.
But the chart above doesn't change the fact that everybody in this city saw this defense get rolled time and time again in the first 3 months of the season---whenever the Eagles needed a big-time stop, a big play or a big 4th-quarter performance, this defense rarely provided that.
Yes, in the Atlanta loss, the first three scores given up by the defense were set up by turnovers all starting on the Eagle side of midfield. In the loss to the Giants, the two second half NYG scores followed a failed 4th-and-1 and a Kafka INT. Both drives started around midfield. Both of these games also featured a redzone turnover by Vick.
But a better defense rises to those occasions more often than not. A better defense does not constantly crumble after its offense commits a turnover or gets stopped on a 4th-and-1 at midfield. Offensive turnovers and mistakes happen---but good defenses rise to the occasion.
I say they should have a stat equivalent to a turnover when your linebacker or safety is burned for big yardage by the opposition because they are exposed in a clueless position in a must-stop situation.
Such a stat would destroy any chart that correlates offensive turnovers with defensive failure. I would call this new stat a "burnover"... One defensive "burnover" would be equivalent to one offensive turnover... Each is as potent as the other for causing games to be lost in the NFL.
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We're lucky to have a guy assigned to scout college talent who's actually a part of this site's network--- his name is Eric Galco--- and he's actually been down in St. Petersburg all week long taking notes on the college seniors who are being showcased this Saturday in their bids to take it to the next level.
A young man of interest is QB Dan Persa, 6-1, 210, a local boy from Bethlehem, Pa., who's put up impressive passing numbers for Northwestern U. the past two seasons...
Eric Galco does our in-house college scouting blog called Optimum Scouting.com. It's always a good read and is the "Cliff's Notes" for everything that JB carries around in his head at all times...
Here's Eric's take on how this week's practices in Florida went and who stood out based on the format of the drills...
Thursday Practice Notes:
Quarterbacks
-On the East roster, John Brantley of Florida looked much better in his deep balls today, timing being a main reason for his success. As I've said each day, he's a guy that lives on timing and anticipation, and he's going to look better as he develops more comfort-ability with receivers, but he still isn't a Top 3, maybe not Top 4 quarterback here. Improved, worth a late round look, but did not impress me.
-Also on the East Roster, they ran a 2:00 minute offense for the quarterbacks. BJ Coleman threw an interception (to Brandon Lindsey), Austin Davis led a field goal drive, and John Brantley...didn't get a shot. I expect similar results in the game.
-On the West roster, the clear cut best quarterback today was Northwestern's Dan Persa. He hasn't wowed all week and likely isn't draftable based on his height and lack of arm, but he was consistently accurate, checking down across the middle, and made some plays on the move. Chandler Harnish had two interceptions to Aaron Henry that I saw... Tyler Hansen had one on the two-minute drills.
Running Backs/Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
-On the East roster, Tauren Poole of Tennessee had another solid day, showing good lateral movement and getting to his top speed quickly through the hole with great vision. Davin Meggett of Maryland showed some suddenness as well today and has shown more this week than he did on film. But overall, he's no lock to be drafted.
-As for the West roster, I unfortunately haven't gotten a good look at this group all week long thanks to the coaching staff not having a lot of contact in drills. Marc Tyler looks the most comfortable catching out of the backfield, but he's dropped some too. Overall, my look at him on the field in game day will be the first and likely only time I'll be truly evaluating him and the entire group this week.
-I continue to be impressed with Tim Benford of Tennessee Tech and AJ Jenkins of Illinois on the East roster at receiver. For their size, they catch away from their body so well, track it in coverage, and are very sudden in their cuts in routes. Both won't be Top 3 rounders, but both should be solid NFL receivers at the next level.
-Lance Lewis of East Carolina has impressed the last two days. Both he and BJ Cunningham of Michigan State have exploded well through the catch all week, and both have been named as guys whom each quarterback has been most comfortable throwing to, which is important to note.
-Thomas Mayo of California, PA, is maybe the most physically impressive receiver here, and at times he's been maybe the most intriguing with his physicality, explosion initially, and his catching in traffic. But his two concerns on film (deep ball positioning and consistent hands) weren't quite answered this week. He still really impressed, but he didn't become a top three rounder like I thought he could have. Still, solid week for Mayo.
-On the West squad, I wasn't able to glean a whole lot. But, I am REALLY intrigued with Dale Moss of South Dakota State. For a one year football player (four year basketball player), he looks far more polished, comfortable, and coachable than I expected coming in. He wasn't the best receiver here, but based on the fact he likely was Top 5 overall, or at least close to it, is VERY exciting for his potential.
-George Bryan of NC State has not been able to establish the seam route, coming off too high as a blocker, and doesn't get in position well in middle routes. But when the ball is thrown his way and he's got even a little space, he can make the catch consistently. He had the catch of the day today, and if he can be a developed blocker and an adequate catcher, he could get late round looks.
Offensive Linemen
-For the East, Jeff Adams of Columbia and Joe Long of Wayne State both were my focus today. First off, both are long snapper prospects as well, Long getting the ball back with much more force, which for sure adds to his value. Long, however, looks quite stiff in his bend and laterally. He has a powerful punch and can reposition his hands fairly well, but he leans back to much in his kick slide and struggles to recover back inside.
-Jeff Adams has improved a lot this week in his hand placement, getting great extension and driving well in both pass and run blocking. His hands have been a little high all week, but they've been slowly and more consistently coming down, and he's starting to get a little inside placement and grabbing some cloth, which is good to see.
-The West wasn't in pads to really evaluate practice, but the only thing that caught my eye was the hurdle by Moe Petrus of UConn. Josh LeRibeus of SMU was on the ground as he pulled on the play, and Petrus saw it as he flipped his head and jumped over a grounded yet still somewhat upright LeRibeus. Petrus has really struggled and will fall drastically down my board after this week, but that was pretty interesting/cool/probably worthless to note.
Defensive Linemen
-Think I mentioned it yesterday, but Matt Conrath of Virginia is just a gamer. He looks very slow, lacks quickness, and gets to pressure late in individual drills, looking like a fringe NFL guy. But every day in team practice, he's gotten better pressure and really flashed, today having great awareness on a few screen plays and one play having a batted ball-to-his interception. I wouldn't draft him in the Top 5 rounds, but as a 5-technique, he intrigues and just makes plays in team drills.
-Travian Robertson of South Carolina showed some great extension and driving today, but he hasn't improved all week long like I had hoped. Still one of the Top 5 defensive tackles here, I wish he wouldn't bettered himself like others day.
-Speaking of guys that did improve all week, Kyle Wilber of Wake Forest showed outstanding quickness off the snap again today, abusing Jeff Adams and Joe Long early in practice. However, he doesn't fight overly well with his hands, and if he doesn't have a pre-determined move that works well in his pass rushes, he doesn't have the strength or explosion to get to the backfield. Also, Micanor Regis of Miami flashed some quickness of the snap all week long and has suddenness on the inside, but shows little else.
-For the West, a few bag-pass rush drills were run that seemed to really clarify a few abilities. DaJohn Harris of USC and Justin Francis of Rutgers were surely the most impressive in the pass rushing drills, both in power and speed rush. Both were the only ones who were able to transition from a speed rush move to staying balanced and aware afterwards. And both have been able to execute in team drills as well.
-Kentrell Lockett of Ole Miss really flashed to me this week with his extension and explosion when he's able to play back from the line or from a two-point stance. But today in those pass rushing drills, he really didn't have the coordination or balance I was hoping to see. I've settled a bit on Lockett, as he's really intriguing with his length and explosion, but he's not the type of balanced outstanding athlete I was hoping to see.
-Vaughn Meatoga of Hawaii echoed today what I saw on film: he has some explosive, developed, powerful power rush moves, but little on the speed rush end in balance and change of direction. He needs a good nose tackle at the next level to be successful, but I don't think he can quickly escape double teams, limiting his potential 3-4 defensive end value to me.
Linebackers
-For the East roster, I'll start off by saying that anyone who has been saying Brandon Lindsey of Pittsburgh is playing poorly this week is, in my opinion, not giving him a fair shake. He's played a 4-3 outside linebacker spot, a spot he's never played before and WON'T be playing in the NFL, as he's a 3-4 OLB at the NFL level. In the few times he's been a short area coverage, mostly having flat responsibility this week, he's looked comfortable and was reacting well to the ball. While it wasn't a great week to highlight his skills, I think it's more of a throw-away and we'll glean a little from it, but it shouldn't really hurt his stock at all.
-Shawn Loiseau of Merrimack and Josh Linam of Central Florida have been consistently around the ball all week long. Linam has been more instinctive and positioning himself well, while Loiseau has been more aggressive, forceful to the backfield all week long. Both have impressed, Loiseau especially.
-Since the West Roster really hasn't had much contact, the only thing I can really is say is that Brandon Marshall of Nevada and Tank Carder of TCU have looked the best in coverage this week. Carder is very fundamentally sound, NFL-ready in zone coverage, while Marshall has gotten to his drops and reacted better than I expected. Keep in mind with Marshall, he had more tackles this year and came downhill with more force than more highly coveted prospect/teammate/linebacker James Michael-Johnson.
Defensive Backs
-RJ Blanton of Notre Dame continued to show his physicality on the East roster, shoving receivers off their routes with consistency all week long. Also for the East, I thought Nick Sukay bounced back all week from a sub-par day one at safety, and he was reacting well, staying low in run support and reading the tight ends better in coverage.
-As for the West Roster, Shaun Prater of Iowa showed some more physicality and actually ran well today with Dale Moss in deep coverage. He was moved to nickel cornerback for a little while too. He's been the most impressive of the West cornerbacks for sure, but West Virginia's Keith Tandy also got to his drops very well, staying low and balanced in his drop back and transitioning better today than in days past and on film. Finally, Trevin Wade of Arizona was struggling to react to the inside, giving up too much cushion on inside routes, a problem Brandon Hardin of Oregon State had yesterday.
-Finally, Aaron Henry of Nebraska and Duke Ihenacho of San Jose State made some plays at safety today. Ihenacho has been quiet all week, but he's an instinctive, quick twitch guy that has the athletic ability to be a worthwhile developmental guy. Henry had two interceptions on Chandler Harnish today, one of which was away from his body, and he came off coverage well to react to it.
Some Issues With The Week of Practice
-The West Roster has done VERY little real football contact this week, with their most physical practice being the rained-filled Wednesday slop-fest. While it has an impact on the game, likely, I don't care about that aspect. I NEVER got a good feel for any of the running backs or how the linebackers can fill in run support. It's too bad for a lot of those guys.
Besides the lack of contact, what is also really a shame is that these teams DON'T give players a chance to work in a 3-4 scheme. Guys like Justin Francis, Vaughn Meatoga, and Matt Conrath could be 3-4 DEs, Brandon Lindsey, Josh Kaddu, and Kyle Wilber could have shown some 3-4 rush skills as well. It's not fair to these guys, as they weren't give ample opportunity to show what they can do. That is something the game really needs to address next year, whether that's involving more drills to show some 5-technique or rushing skills, or even having one 3-4 team and one 4-3 team, and doing their best to put players on the teams accordingly.
Injury Notes
-Junior Hemingway of Michigan was the latest in the injuries Thursday with a pulled hamstring, and as Joe Everett of RookieDraft.com reported, he's questionable for the game. Also injured after being on the initial roster this week was Gary Gray of Notre Dame (groin injury), Tysyn Hartman of Kansas State (concussion), Bruce Figgins of Georgia (likely concussion, not confirmed), and Markus Zusevics (unknown injury).
Guys the Eagles will probably be interested in the most:
1. Dan Persa, QB
2. Dale Moss, WR
3. Shawn Loiseau, LB
4. Shaun Prater, DB
5. Aaron Henry, S
6. Tank Carder, LB
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It's official... Steve Spagnuolo chose New Orleans as his new residence as an NFL defensive coordinator... Does that mean Juan Castillo gets to live to die another day with the Eagles at that tenuous position? Not necessarily...
But a lot of Philly fans treat the departure of an available Spags as a death knell to their dreams of defensive dominance in 2012.
Hey, wait a minute--- this is not brain surgery!
Good luck to Spags in his new job---- but it's not like his hiring by the Eagles would have guaranteed anything greater in results than that of the mindset that is currently evolving in the Eagles coaching office. Even informed armchairs know what went wrong in the defensive scheme and technique of the Eagles in the unmasked season of 2011. Plus, what is Spags but the symbolic throwback to the halcyon years of the late Jim Johnson?
The game has changed since Jim Johnson...a lot.
Give him his credit, though. Spagnuolo, 52, was head coach in St. Louis the past three seasons and was fired in January after going 10-38 with the Rams. Before that he was defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, a stint that included a Super Bowl upset of the New England Patriots.
Before joining the Giants, Spagnuolo was a defensive assistant in Philadelphia from 1999-2006. He coached Pro Bowl players including Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard, and helped Philadelphia field a 10th-ranked defense in the 2004 season, when the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl before falling to New England.
But if David Tyree doesn't catch that ball with his helmet in the 2007-08 Super Bowl, do we even worry or care about Spags not coming back to the Eagles?
We're still waiting to hear from the Eagles, whose silence has been deafening ever since the season ended. Juan Castillo is still the guy here...until further notice.
Pardon me for a momentary lapse of objectivity, but you could bring Wade Phillips into Philly as the new DC, and still not have a defense that could overcome the ridiculous amount of turnovers and giveaways committed by the Eagles offense in 2011.
In other words, the Eagles defense was on the field way too much in 2011---and with lousy field position a lot. That was not the fault of the defensive coordinator. Offensive turnovers made a defense struggling to find its identity appear even worse than it really was.
And even the greatest coordinator in the business needs the right personnel to coordinate... This is not to take away from the athletic and mental abilities of the current Eagles roster, it just says there are one or two pieces missing in the overall leadership of the Eagles defense, especially in the areas of pre-snap reads and communication... and that comes down to the players, not the coaches.
Tackling was an issue, too. Tackling is not a natural act, as Stan White told us months ago. It must be re-taught and re-learned every summer. Perhaps better tackling technique alone would have changed the possible outcome of at least two losses in 2011.
Impossible to say for sure...so many variables...
All I know for sure is--- the game has changed since Jim Johnson coordinated the defensive side of it. New rules that favor the offense, new regulations that impede a defensive player's potential to enforce his will upon a game...
So "losing" Spags to the Saints doesn't really bug me that much. It would not have been about Spags anyway. It will be about someone who understands the balance between gap coverage and pass rush. It will be about someone who puts zone coverage in harmony with man-press coverage, and is not afraid to mix both... And mostly, it will be about someone who can delegate on-field leadership to a player or two who can read and recognize in the heat of battle, and not have to look longingly to the sideline for direction at every crucial point in a series of downs...
That's my New year's wish for the Eagles defense--- to develop on-field leaders who are coordinators on the field. Even Juan Castillo is capable of achieving this goal. We haven't had that defensive spirit here since---well, it's been a while.
Talking with Ravens' DC Chuck Pagano yesterday on a radio show, I couldn't help but ask:
"Do you have highlights of the Eagles-Patriots game on your guys' iPads in preparation for the big game in Foxboro this weekend?"
Pagano's resounding answer: an absolute "Yes".
First of all, it should be noted the Baltimore Ravens are the first team in the NFL to go away from traditional tape study and paper playbooks to the incorporation of everything upon an iPad tablet. Their players get every game plan detail and also individualized studies of positional opponents' tendencies downloaded to their iPads every Tuesday of every game week.
I believe the Eagles will soon be adopting this electronic game prep trend, if not already...
The bigger matter at hand, though, is what can the Ravens learn from the Eagles, especialy in the area of stopping or slowing down the great production of the Pats' huge and talented tight ends, Gronkowski and Hernandez?
You remember that Week 12 game... it kinda ended the Eagles playoff hopes at the time. We man-pressed Gronkowski and Hernandez at times, and we tried zone coverage with linebackers, too... none of it worked.
Brady threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns and the Patriots beat the Eagles 38-20 in a rematch of the 2005 Super Bowl. Filling in for the injured Michael Vick for the second straight game, Vince Young couldn't keep Philadelphia's fading playoff hopes alive despite throwing for a career-best 400 yards passing.
The six-time Pro Bowl quarterback Brady finished 24 of 34, Deion Branch had 125 yards receiving and Wes Welker caught eight passes for 115 yards and two TDs. Brady's favorite targets, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez , also chipped in big-time. Gronkowski caught his 11th TD pass and Hernandez had six receptions. BenJarvus Green-Ellis scored twice on the ground.
The Eagles (4-7 after that one) were all-but-mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
Down 10-0 early, the Patriots rallied behind Brady. New England scored on five of its next six possessions, excluding a kneel-down at the end of the first half.
"Overall we did a great job of staying composed on the sideline and making the right adjustments and doing pretty much what we game planned for," Branch said. Brady and coach Bill Belichick improved to 4-0 against Reid's Eagles, including a 24-21 win for their third NFL title in four years after the 2004 season. "Tom did a good job really pressing the issue," Belichick said. "He felt he had them on the run with some of the mismatches. Tom kept pressing it, guys got open and Tom did what he does best, finding the open guys."
Well, that's what the Ravens are up against this coming Sunday. The problem is, much like the Eagles, the Ravens have a pretty decent secondary coverage unit... but no man-to-man press personnel that can account for Gronkowski or Hernandez.
So the Ravens are looking at the Eagles game tape to find anything that worked against Brady's tight ends... and perhaps more importantly, to dissect everything that went wrong.
Problem is, you can cover Gronk or Hernandez like a cheap suit, and at their respective heights (6-6, 6-5), they can still beat a defender without achieving horizontal separation. Often they can just go up for a vertical leap and come down with the ball.
A lot of folks have told me you should try to stop Gronk and Hernandez by pressing or chucking them at the line of scrimmage. Three main things wrong with that theory:
1. Brady lines these guys up in the backfield a lot;
2. Brady splits Gronk into the slot or even as a wide-out in the flank a lot;
3. Even if they are lined up at the traditional TE spot on the line, chucking down either one of these huge guys is not an easy task; and by assigning a DE or LB to that task, you've just removed a piece of your pass rush on Brady.
In the photo above, Brady has both Gronk and Hernandez lined up in the backfield beside him!
Last week against Denver the Pats spent a bulk of the game in a no-huddle that featured tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez (who lined up all over the place) and wideouts Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Julian Edelman. Remarkably, they were able to run effectively out of this personnel grouping, as Hernandez carried the ball five times out of the backfield for 61 yards total rushing of his own.
The real purpose of putting Hernandez in the backfield is the same purpose as all of New England’s other alignments: to get a potent pass catcher matched up on a linebacker. Even safeties have major trouble covering Hernandez and Gronkowski.
Andy Benoit has a nice piece on this subject at CBSSports.com Film Room.
Benoit reminds us of a few hard cold realities for the Ravens: most notably, Baltimore's starting safeties will not be able to cover Gronkowski...at least not in the traditional sense when we think of the term "coverage"...
"Baltimore’s strong safety Bernard Pollard is simply not capable of doing it, and the Ravens are unlikely to remove Ed Reed from centerfield. Brady rarely throws in the direction of starting cornerbacks. Even when he goes to Wes Welker, it’s often when Welker has drawn a matchup against a backup slot corner or non-cornerback. Because the Patriots don’t try to confuse defenses so much as force them into bad matchups, HOW the Patriots LINE UP to play is almost more important than how they actually play. Most of the damage is done through crafty presnap alignment. (This is one reason so many of Brady’s throws come off three-and five-step drops; the decision of where to go with the ball is made prior to the snap.)"
"The Patriots frequently go up-tempo to prevent defenses from having enough time to regroup or alter matchups before the snap. The only sure way to take the chess match element out of the equations and force the Patriots to win with execution is to play press-man coverage across the board. Problem is, no defense, including Baltimore’s, has enough quality cover artists to do this."
And like we talked about earlier, you could have a "quality cover" with press-man coverage on Gronk, and he can still beat you with a basketball move.
So pressing Gronk or Hernandez when they're not lining up in the backfield is not the answer. The Ravens will probably do a zone containment on Brady's tight ends...and combine that with a pass rush that comes from multiple looks designed to confuse Brady a little and Gronk a lot... and hope that their safeties and linebackers can swarm to the target and hold Gronk and Hernandez to less-than-great gains when the tight ends do catch the ball.
Look for the Ravens to do plenty of presnap communicating and disguising at the line of scrimmage. It helps that they’re comfortable playing a bunch of different coverages. The outcome may be decided by which side can both bully and finesse the other into a reactionary position. The Patriots can do that by going hurry-up; the Ravens can do it by blitzing up the middle....or, more importantly, making it LOOK like a blitz up the middle.
As Benoit astutely observes: "Recent playoff history shows that if a defense can create pressure and doubt, Brady will eventually start eating up the play clock worrying about protections. That makes him a significantly less dangerous player versus when he’s hurrying things up and concentrating on his receivers’ routes."
The question is, can the Ravens generate a pass-rush? If they blitz, they likely can. But one of the best kept secrets in football is that this is generally a four-man rushing defense. Because the Ravens use so many 3-4 or 2-5 fronts, their four pass-rushers come from a variety of different spots, thus creating the illusion of a blitz.
The Ravens use a lot of zone exchange concepts in their pass-rush. A zone exchange is essentially a four-man pass-rush where linebackers or safeties rush the quarterback, while a defensive lineman or another linebacker drops back into coverage. It can be confusing, often creating the illusion of a heavy blitz.
[Benoit gives you a nice visual look at the Ravens "zone exchange concept" in his article... Worth a look.]
Here's what the Ravens do from a 3-4 base when they "zone exchange"... if the Eagles could adapt "zone exchange" from their 4-3, maybe the kinds of losses we saw against the Patriots and other tight-end based offenses (like Atlanta) would have turned out a little differently...
 |
| The Ravens use a lot of zone exchange concepts in their pass-rush. A zone exchange is essentially a four-man pass-rush where linebackers or safeties rush the quarterback, while a defensive lineman or another linebacker drops back into coverage. It can be confusing, often creating the illusion of a heavy blitz. The Thanksgiving night game – in which Baltimore had nine sacks – provided a good example. Upon first glance, this appears to be a blitz featuring five, possibly six pass-rushers. Below: #90 (Pernell McPhee) drops back off the blitz look to cover the passing zone that may include TE Vernon Davis or anyone else coming out of the 49ers backfield into his zone of responsibility. To the quarterback (Alex Smith), it appears everything's covered... and his choice of targets has been greatly diminished. |
 |
So the Ravens will be studying the Eagles tape to observe where and how Gronkowski and Hernandez got beyond the zones of coverage so often in the Week 12 matchup. They will tweak their zone exchange concepts accordingly.
You can also bet Juan Castillo and Andy Reid will be taking notes too on the Ravens-Patriots game this Sunday.
It's a volatile year for NFL head coaches and assistants... Here's the latest scorecard:
KANSAS CITY — Todd Haley, fired, Dec. 12; Romeo Crennel (interim); Crennel named coach Jan. 9.
INDIANAPOLIS — Jim Caldwell, fired, Jan. 17.
JACKSONVILLE — Jack Del Rio, fired, Nov. 29; Mel Tucker (interim); Mike Mularkey named coach, Jan. 10.
MIAMI — Tony Sparano, fired, Dec. 12; Todd Bowles (interim).
OAKLAND — Hue Jackson, fired, Jan. 10.
ST. LOUIS — Steve Spagnuolo, fired, Jan. 2; Jeff Fisher named coach, Jan. 17.
TAMPA BAY — Raheem Morris, fired, Jan. 2.
A closer look at the Oakland situation now reveals: The Oakland Raiders have been given permission to interview Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg for their vacant coaching job. Mornhinweg has spent the past nine seasons as an offensive assistant with the Eagles. He previously went 5-27 in two seasons as Detroit's head coach in 2001-02.
New Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie has already been granted permission to interview Denver coordinators Mike McCoy and Dennis Allen, and New Orleans offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. He is also believed to be interested in talking to a number of assistants with Green Bay, where McKenzie previously worked.
I can already hear the "Hmmmmmmmm's" coming out of Sonny Moonbeam's pie-hole... He was never a big Marty fan...but if Marty gets turned down for the head job in Oakland, and then stays on as OC with Philly, there will be hell to pay on this site for the "I told you so's" the first time in 2012 the Eagles go three-and-out on an offensive series.
Meanwhile...
Our good friend Jimmy Fallon (of NBC fame and my former college roommate's buddy) was recruited to help salute one of the most prolific Eagles fan posters in the combined histories of PE.com and EEB.com... We're talking about the praise of career achievement for the brilliant BROZER 8 (aka Hamhox, Snorpus Blart and possibly Shackleford) that is long overdue...
[Cue maudlin piano musical accompaniment:]
"Thank you, Brozer 8, for all the fun and parody and also the serious NFL commentary you have brought to Eagles fans over the past five years..."
"You started out as an impressionist at PE.com... the first to mimic the Prince of Perk's precious mannerisms... but you grew from there..."
"You're only 40 years old now, but the joy you've brought to your collective audience at PE.com and EEB.com over the years makes you a living legend..."
"Broz, you are welcome to join me anytime at the NBC Commissary in New York's Rockefeller Center for a celebratory lunch... just call first...as you know, I'm busy...kinda busy..."
Fantastic honor for a great poster!
Quickly looking at Brozer's early days (his "Greatest Hits" period, Volume 1), there are these snippets to share from his PE.com appearances:
Brozer8:
" Dat shartrhymer, Great Fat JB99, sounds a little, different, or sumptin', to ole Broz,...iz dat really youz senetah' ? What's urz favorite type of addictive donut,...? To be sure, Broz is da paranoid type,...(flies everywhere), and he's been known to hold a 20 bill up to da light, to check for authenticity,..."
Brozer8:
"LB nonsense: dere's been much talk lately, dat the Eagles don't value LB's...and da example these misguided posters use is da Steelers, Packers, ravens etc. But dat's not really fair, and it's comparing apples to grapefruits,...because da playmakin' LB's on those teams are outside LB's in a 3-4 scheme,...which are closer in job description to our defensive ends...which we invest heavily in (wiff mixed success),...and besides, how can anyone complain about our LB drafting strategy, when we've netted blue chippers like Quinten Caver and Barry Gardner, and da underratted Matt McCoy? Carry buns,..."
Brozer8:
"BC,...Broz is veryyyy suspicious,...of everyone,....everyone seems,..funny, not haha funny,....what kind of person,...would use da opportunity of da recent disaster, to steal another member's identity,...women and children would,...but not men ! DangBro"
"Pork chop, my little chick-a-dees ! B-9,...I reject blubber in stew, senatah' ! Youz don't know whoz youz prefer,
"I just saw, some fool, jump from a helium baloon, dat was 107,000 feet into da outer atmoshpere, on da border or space ! What a FREAK ! But it woulda been cooler if he had had a 106,999 foot bungee cord attached to him instead of a wimpy parachute,...what a poosey,...hooz wiff me !"
Okay, maybe not the
best
examples...
But look at what Brozer has done lately... he's actually taken on serious NFL commentary roles...
"I'm not sure why Spags WOULDN'T want to come here (assuming he isn't forced to run any d-line scheme he doesn't want to, and has total control over the D)."
"Think about it: With a reasonable veteran or two at LB and maybe safety, you have all the talent in the world on defense. PLUS, the public perception is that this defense played HORRIBLY last year."
"So even if Spags just turned it into a good defense,...not great,..just good, the perception is gonna be that HE turned this crap defense into a good defense in one year ! And considering the talent, there's no reason why he wouldn't be able to do that."
"Couple that wiff the fax, that you're working under a head coach that surely won't be here in 2 years regardless of how well we do, and he'll be the successful coordinator that turned a defense around, sitting there with a head coaching vacancy. It's a perfect sitch for him,...if you axt me."
And this:
"I don't worry about ProBowl honors for LB's,....92% of the time, they base it on who has the most sacks,....which skews it towards 3-4 OLB's, that are more like Def Ends in our system. Not many 4-3 backers make it to the probowl these days,....wiff exception to a few Mikes."
And this:
"I only have one 'Trade Up Boy'.
"Mine and GreatFat's boy Mikey Brockers. He's got the versatitties to play anywhere on the line."
"And me tinks that DE, might be a higher draff priority than LB in the FO's book (might be in mine too,...pies)"
"Cuz troof be told, if you try, we can get a good vet to plug in right away at LB in FA, cuz we don't need world-class affletes at LB in our system, just guys that can stay in their gaps and tackle like an NFL player. Those guys can be gotten ! That way, it buys you time to let the guys you already got develop. (but we still need to draft 1 in the 2nd or 3rd)."
We could go on all night with more great cuts from the Brozer Anthology. But for the sake of time and space, we'll leave it here... Suffice it to say, Brozer is a keepsake treasure for all Eagles fans who appreciate the Truth spiced with some pretty sophisticated humor. The Best of Brozer Volume II will be a future blurb, I can assure you.
And for those of you who may wonder what the real Brozer looks like, here is the best available photo of him taken in his Virginia hometown during his semi-pro playing career:
At age 40, Brozer may be over the hill in terms of playing career... but as an analyst and commentator, he's only just begun.
